Why do exchange rates change?
Exchange rates move constantly because a currency's price reflects supply and demand for it. Several forces drive that demand:
- Interest rates. Higher rates tend to attract capital, raising demand for a currency. Central-bank rate decisions are among the biggest single movers.
- Inflation. Persistently high inflation erodes purchasing power and usually weakens a currency over time.
- Trade balances. Countries that export more than they import see steady demand for their currency.
- Political and economic stability. Investors favour stable economies, which is why "safe-haven" currencies strengthen during turmoil.
- Market sentiment and speculation. Expectations about all of the above move rates before the events even happen.
Most major currencies "float" โ their value is set by markets. Some are "pegged" or managed against another currency or a basket, which limits how far they move.